Super Bowl News and Notes

As I enter my 14th Super Bowl selection as a professional handicapper (10-3 ATS over that span), it still amazes me how popular of a wagering event it is, as both national TV exposure and plenty of hype, even out of Las Vegas ,and offshore with all the exotic wagers, brings bettors out of the woodwork. With many of these exotic wagers, it is clean-up time for Las Vegas books and offshore books as well, with more losers than winners from the betting public. I thought I would touch on the game itself and some trends over the years to highlight, because we all know this is the biggest thing in sports every year, and there is some money to be made on the final game of the NFL this season without question.

When it comes to prop bets, there is ample opportunity to make some cash. In the past 2 years I have won all 6 prop bets on the past 2 Super Bowls, and those wagers are one which you CAN handicap and the hold merit. Rushing yards over and unders for specific players, number of field goals over and unders, scoring in quarters, and others like those all have a proven track record of stats and numbers to work with from the season. Bets like heads or tails on the coin flip, and other exotic wagers I tend to stay away from, and grab opportunity with real "meat and potatoes" type wagers that provide opportunity, I suggest you do the same.

The Game- You have 2 teams and 2 coaches here that are rock solid football teams. This match-up should provide some fireworks in terms of excitement and scoring. Both teams have something to prove and both coaches also have something to prove. Bill Cowher is one of the best coaches in the NFL, and the one thing missing from his eventual appearance in Canton Ohio at the Hall of Fame is a Super Bowl win under his belt. Of course on the other side of the field you have Mike Holmgren, who has went to 2 Super Bowls as a head coach (he won 2 rings as an assistant at SF), and is 1-1, but no coach has ever won a Super Bowl, as a head coach of 2 different teams, although it has been attempted, and Bill Parcells most recently comes to mind. A battle of elder statesmen in terms of coaching tenure and experience, and both coaches have plenty of weapons on both sides of the ball to create some game strategy. It should be a real chess match on Sunday night.

The Steelers- Pittsburgh under Bill Cohwer has always been about a tough minded, physical game. The ground game is their bread and butter and we all know it, but they used QB Rothlesburger as their main weapon in both the Colts and Bronco's win, establishing early on their were not going to try to ram in down their throats, but mix it up and keep a wide open offensive attack from the start, which I felt really threw a wrench into both those opponents gameplan. The Steelers also blitzed a great deal on defense and brought their safety's up in run support while playing man-you-man in coverage, and while that can burn you, neither Peyton Manning or Jake Plummer could overcome the pressure, nor did their offensive lines. I look for them to come out again, balance the attack and continue to use a pressure defense.

The Seahawks-Seattle is playing up the "no respect" angle, but I assure you that Pittsburgh knows they are good. Whenever you run the ball as well as Shawn Alexander does (over 1800 yards), and league MVP, you have everyone's attention in the NFL, because a great running game means a great offensive line, and it means keeping defense's honest to stop the run. The one thing you should know is Mike Holmgren likes to create mis-matches in terms of his personnel, and score points with those mis-matches, and I think he is a great playcaller as a coach. In terms of Seattle as a whole, QB Hasselbeck's rise as a star is due to this, because they do not have a world class receiver on this team, but guys that make plays. They led the NFL in scoring, but were mediocre on defense, but as always, if you cannot shut them down, outscore them, and that what is what Seattle has done to land themselves in this game.

In the last 10 Super Bowls, the favorite, in this case Pittsburgh, have went 2-6-2 ATS against the opening line, and the last 4 Super Bowls have been decided by a field goal, many of them Adam Venatari's! Many of the past 39 Super Bowls have been one sided games, but with the recent parity levels in the NFL, we have seen some good ones over the past 4 or 5 years. Both teams enter this game with an impressive 2005 resume, and the Steelers beating the #1 through the #3 seeds all on the road to get here is most impressive, but do they have enough gas in the tank with a 4th straight road game, while Seattle enjoyed dominance at home? Time will tell this Sunday. In terms of scoring, no one knows the game plan here except for players and coaches, but in the past 10 years, the overs have a slight edge at 5-4-1 ATS. I think both teams will score, but in big games, experienced coaches stress defesne, and the team who plays it the best on Sunday will win in my opinion, and both teams are capable.

Tony George is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Tony_George.htm

NFL Highlight: New Orleans Saints

Another year and another Saints team, destined for the cellar as usual in the Big Easy right? No so fast, as I think this Saints team may in fact be the surprise of the NFC this year and may exceed expectations. Last year was a nightmare for this team, compounded by hurricane Katrina, which resulted in workouts in parking lots, no home field, and quite frankly a brutal and homeless year for the downtrodden Saints, resulting in Jim Haslett being fired and many issues still to overcome in 2006, such as no home field, a new coaching staff, and a ton of new faces.

Now the good news, starting with Sean Peyton as head coach, and an excellent coaching staff in place, and he is a Bill Parcells guy, and we all know about Parcells influence on coaches, and that is going to breath new life into this hapless franchise in my mind. Winning the Reggie Bush sweepstakes in the draft will cause excitement with fans, and unloading unproductive QB Aaron Brooks, who was a human turnover machine, and getting Drew Brees to replace him was a major boost. With this offense, you have talent and plenty of it, all at skill positions. If this line can provide protection, you have a RB tandem of Deuce McCallister and Reggie Bush, both effective at running and catching, with elusive speed and the ability to make people miss tackles which results in big plays. Add into the mix, 2002 Pro Bowler Mike Bennett, and you have the deepest and strongest RB line-up in the NFL.

At quarterback, you have a patient, heady leader who knows how to win, is an accurate thrower and he has some weapons to stretch the field. With Joe Horn coming off a bad year, I look for him to get single coverage this year with the running threat, and he should flourish, and Donte Satllworth is no slouch and can make some plays over the middle. You have two solid tight ends with Conwell and Hilton who caught 35 passes last year, and should catch more with Brees as he loves to throw outlet passes to tight ends. The weapons and capability here are a serious threat to all who defend this team and oi overlooked in any aspect, will put some serious points on the board quickly. Their balance should be verey effective.

Now the HUGE issue at hand, the offensive line and defense. On the offensive line, you have 5 new starters at different positions, and losing both Kendyl Jacox and Wayne Gandy, and also their starting center to free agency. Having this unit in place and ready, and able to pass protect and open holes for the excellent running game they have on paper here will be the KEY to success this season, and the only stumbling block to a 9 win season, and possible wild card berth, because their is no way they can win this division.

The defense has an emerging star in DE Will Smith who logged 9 sacks last year and is going to be a good one. The linebacker position is a work in progress but picking up Scott Fujita and Tony Simmons in free agency was big, and both will start as the third LB position is up in the air, but a star needs to emerge and this unit is average at best. The line on defense has 2 solid ends with Smith and Grant and picking up Hollis Thomas from the Eagles was a solid trade and will help, but some interior lineman need to make some noise this year. The secondary is solid but thin, with both Mike McKenzie and Fred Thomas good cover corners, but as mentioned, depth is an issue to watch here. Both Josh Bullocks and Dwight Smith as solid safeties and could move to corner is pressed for duty. Look for teams to run on them until the line settles in and the linebackers step up to the challenge, but with a solid secondary, and good rush ends, the defense under Gary Gibbs leadership should be better than average.

The Saints are in a division with Carolina, Atlanta and Tampa Bay, and getting into the third spot here would be a huge feat as all teams in this division could do better than .500 ball this year. If overlooked the Saints could steal a win or two on the road, but with no home field again in 2006, that puts them at a disadvantage. This team is a work in progress, however I assure you a 3-13 season will not repeat, they are talented and will have some excellent leadership from the coaching staff. I actually look for the Saints to have a bright future and a building block type season this year. The OVER 6.5 wins is the way to go at -140 for a futures bet here.

Tony George is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Tony_George.htm

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Preview : #41 Colorado Buffaloes

Spring practices are in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it so that means getting an early jump on the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you get a grasp of what to expect this upcoming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 College Football Preview.

#41 – Colorado Buffaloes 7-6 SU; 6-7 ATS

Fargo’s Take Scandals have marred a once proud Colorado program and the Buffaloes hope that all of those negatives are gone for good. The last one to hit the road was head coach Gary Barnett who was involved in more than one downbeat issue surrounding the team. Former Boise St. head coach Dan Hawkins takes over and he has vowed to turn this team around, both on and off the field. The Buffaloes did make it to a bowl game last year but it wasn’t because of solid play down the stretch. They were outscored 100-6 in their final two games but won the Big XII North thanks to other teams falling down the stretch as well. Colorado will be implementing new systems on both sides of the ball and if it can pick things up in a hurry, there is the possibility of a repeat in the North. However, the schedule is tough and there are a lot of question marks, namely on offense, that must be answered in order to make it back to the postseason.

Returning Starters on Offense – 5 The offense at Boise St. flourished under Hawkins and he is hoping that the new wide open scheme will cause problems for unfamiliar Big XII defenses. In order for the offense to succeed, a quarterback must emerge. Juniors Brian White and Bernard Jackson are in line to replace Joel Klatt and the battle likely won’t be decided until late in fall camp. Hawkins relies on balance in both the passing game and the running game and the latter will be in good shape with the return of running back Hugh Charles. Charles rushed for 842 yards last season and he could have a breakout junior season under the new attack. The offensive line is strong on the right side, with three returning starters but the left side will be manned by young newcomers. Veteran receivers are in place to make the quarterback transition run smoother.

Returning Starters on Defense – 8 Colorado had one of the best rushing defenses in the country a season ago, finishing 11th in the nation but that ranking will be hard to replicate in 2006. The defensive line needs to replace three starters and youth will be present throughout. Three of the four linebackers are back so whatever deficiencies the line may have will be made up in the middle. The secondary lost Gerett Burl to suspension but it does get Terrence Wheatley back who missed all of last season with an injury. The passing defense was a disappointing 87th in the country last season so getting pressure on the quarterback, something new defensive coordinator Ron Collins vows to accomplish, will need to occur. It will likely be up to this unit to carry the team for the early part of the year until the offense and the new quarterback can get its head around the new scheme.

Schedule Playing in the Big XII North gives the Buffaloes an easier schedule than most but it is still extremely demanding. Colorado hosts Montana St. in its opener before facing rival Colorado St. in a neutral site game in Denver. The end of the non-conference slate is extremely tough with a home game against Arizona St. before traveling to Georgia. If the Buffaloes can come out of that stretch with a 2-2 record, it will be considered a success. The Big XII schedule starts off with two winnable games against Missouri and Baylor but then strengthens with a home game against Texas Tech and a road contest at Oklahoma. The end of the season will likely determine who wins the North as the Buffaloes host Iowa St. before traveling to Nebraska in its season finale.

You can bet on… The Colorado program is heading in the right direction but it isn’t going to succeed overnight. Hawkins is the perfect fit for the head coaching job as he has had success wherever he has coached and he takes pride in the character of his team, which is actually more important at this point. The first three lined games of the season are against non-conference teams and the Buffaloes are just 10-22 against the number since 1996 in those situations. Colorado has not had a profitable season since 2002 but that could change this year if the Buffaloes can improve upon their 1-5 ATS record on the road from a season ago. Good things will happen in Boulder but it could take some time.

Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm

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Top 10 Allen College Football

When looking into the future to determine who will be the next college football national champion, several key factors must be considered. Talent of course is key, but when it comes right down to it, the difference in talent between football factories Oklahoma, USC, Ohio State, and Notre Dame is really very negligible. Game-breaking super studs like Vince Young and Reggie Bush help. Breaks and avoiding injury are key. Underrated in the mix might very well be schedule which plays a critical part in determining who will go to the National Title Game.

#1 Auburn: If ever there was a schedule tailor made for a National Championship run, it’s the Auburn Tigers. The War Eagle returns just six starters on each side of the ball but the offense showcases Kenny Irons, a 1293 yard, 13 touchdown game breaker who should run wild against a non-conference menu of Washington State, Buffalo, Tulane, and Arkansas State. The Tigers gets SEC heavyweights LSU, Arkansas, Florida, and Georgia at home. The SEC West is theirs to lose.

#2 Oklahoma: The Sooners are loaded again, particularly on the defensive side of the ball where they return nine starters. On offense, Adrian Peterson appears to be healthy and will look to avoid the nagging injuries that plagued him throughout his sophomore season. Oklahoma’s non-conference schedule features September 16th trip at Oregon to take on the Quack Attack at Autzen Stadium. Oklahoma also benefits from bye week before Red River showdown with Texas.

#3 USC: Gone are the Hollywood Marquee names of Palmer, Leinart, and Bush but the Trojans still return a solid core nucleus from a program that has gone 38-2 over the past three years. USC will be in capable hands with either Booty or Sanchez and all-world wide out Dale Jarrett has been cleared to play. The Trojans will be about defense in 2006 and should again be unbeaten after eight games before facing Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame, all on their home field.

#4 Michigan: This could be the year that Wolverines upend Ohio State for the Big 10 Conference title. Michigan is loaded on offense with third year junior QB Chad Henne looking fulfill his hype. Mike Hart has all kinds of talent in the backfield but has not stayed healthy. Mario Manningham is dangerous playmaker with excellent hands. If Blue and Maize can win in South Bend and avoid other early upset ( a regular occurrence of late), it will be OSU/Michigan for the cash on November 18th at the Horseshoe.

#5 Texas: The Longhorns start the post-Vince Young era with 13 returning starters and a very manageable schedule. Ohio State comes knocking in Week Two but then it’s a full month before meeting Oklahoma in Dallas. Texas will have its usual power ground attack but may go to the air more with it’s quality group of talented veteran receivers. A Friday home game vs. A&M in their conference finale could be a boobie-trap.

#6 Miami Florida: Larry Coker’s bunch could the under-the–radar team in this year’s title chase. Coker spent a lot of the summer weeding out bad kids but what’s left is still formidable. Highly touted junior QB Kyle Wright gets the Seminoles right off the bat and then play a revenge minded Louisville on the road. After that it’s cruise control before November home games with Virginia Tech and Boston College.

#7 Ohio State: The Buckeyes are the wildcard and could just as easily be ranked first as seventh. The Buckeyes will be tested right away at Texas and are at Iowa, Michigan State, and nemesis Northwestern. OSU has two potential Heisman candidates in Troy Smith and Ted Ginn Jr. but with only two starters returning on defense, it’s highly unlikely they can run the table.

#8 Notre Dame: The Irish are loaded for Charlie Weis but open with Murderer’s Row schedule of at Georgia Tech. Penn St, Michigan, at Michigan State, and Purdue. If they emerge unscathed, they have Stanford, UCLA, North Carolina, and the Services to pad Brady Quinn’s stats before traveling to the Coliseum for the Trojans. Nine returnees from last year’s underrated defense make the Domers a threat for the National title.

#9 Louisville: The Cardinals will make their run to foul up the system by having every opportunity to go 12-0 and winning another very mediocre version of the Big East. Louisville starts with warm-ups against state rival Kentucky and Temple before taking on the Hurricanes at Papa John. They also get 10 days to prepare for only real conference test West Virginia who they also get at home. Cards are decked with pro prospects Michael Bush, Brian Brohm, and super-soph WR Mario Urrutia. Like Utah two years ago, this team could be the fly in the ointment.

#10 California: Every year several pre-season publications seem to settle on one reach that pretty much serves as the media flavor of the year. In 2006, the Golden Bear’s apparently fit the bill. The hype centers around junior RB Marshawn Lynch who rushed for 1874 yards at 7.0 ypc and still grabbed 34 passes for eight yards per pop. If the Bears knock off the Vols on the road in their opener, they still must win at USC and at Arizona in November. California could be playing in the Vegas Bowl or on New Year’s Day.

Jeff Allen is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Jeff_Allen.htm

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